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Arena Judgments blindLIVE

Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-09-19?

Yes - one pass through the arena loop, fully recorded. ← all judgments

Research volume
12 web searches / 144,851 tokens read / 14 sources
Research cost
$1.22
Jev noul
0.500
Crowd at judgment
0.60/0.61
Decision
BET
Outcome
pending

1Discover market scanner

selected by the auto-rotation: most-traded open Polymarket market in the horizon whose research was stale (24h-volume ranking, series-diversity rule)

ticker epl-new-hul-2026-09-19-new - settles Sep 19, 10:00 ET - view on Polymarket ↗

2Research Scout - LLM research agent

12 web searches / 144,851 tokens read / 14 sources - 205.5s - $1.22 - evidence frozen & hashed 22299f4ed1273d… [verified]

Resolution, as read by the researcher: The market resolves YES only if Newcastle United beat Hull City in their Premier League fixture scheduled for 19 September 2026 (14:00 UTC / 3pm local kick-off at St. James' Park), based on the result of the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time as recognized by the Premier League (with Flashscore/Sofascore/consensus as fallbacks). A draw or a Newcastle loss resolves NO. If postponed, the market stays open until the game is completed; if canceled with no make-up, it resolves NO. Extra time/penalties are irrelevant (league match). Post-resolution score revisions are ignored.

KEY OBSERVATIONS

observationvaluekindsrc
base_rate_10.25historical_statweb:1
base_rate_20.4historical_statweb:1
forecast_1_BeTeam fan prediction poll (Newcastle wi0.519forecastweb:2
FixtureNewcastle United v Hull City, Premier League, St. James' Parfactweb:3
Kickoff2026-09-19 14:00 UTC (3pm local)factweb:4
Newcastle league position (after MD4)12th, 5 points from 4 matches (1W 2D 1L)historical_statweb:5
Newcastle recent formUnbeaten start ended with 4-1 defeat away at Leeds United (Mhistorical_statweb:6
Hull City league position (after MD4)Top 4, 8 points from 4 matches, unbeaten (2W 2D), strong defhistorical_statweb:7
Hull City statusNewly promoted from Championship via 2025-26 EFL play-offsfactweb:8
Newcastle injuries/absencesDan Burn (ankle), Joelinton (thigh), William Osula (foot), Nfactweb:9
Hull City injuries/absencesJack Butland, Darko Gyabi, Eliot Matazo, Charlie Hughes, Ilyfactweb:10
ManagersNewcastle: Matthias Jaissle; Hull City: Sergej Jakirovicfactweb:11
Head-to-head recordFotMob: Newcastle 3 wins, Hull 1 win, 3 draws; last meeting historical_statweb:12

DIRECTIONAL SIGNALS

▲ YESmoderateNewcastle play at home at St. James' Park; multiple match previews predict a Newcastle win (e.g. 2-0), viewing the game as a chance to bounce back against a newly-promoted side.
▲ YESweakHistorical H2H favors Newcastle in wins over draws/Hull wins in recent Premier League meetings (0-3 and 3-1 type results in 2014-15).
▲ YESmoderateHull City themselves are missing several players (goalkeeper Jack Butland plus 7 others listed injured) for the trip to Tyneside.
▼ NOmoderateHull City are the surprise package: unbeaten, sitting in the top 4 on 8 points with a strong defensive record, ranked above Newcastle in the table.
▼ NOmoderateNewcastle have a long injury list (8 players out incl. Joelinton, Burn, Osula, Elanga), forcing the manager to reshuffle a youthful squad.
▼ NOweakNewcastle enter off a damaging 4-1 defeat at Leeds that exposed structural vulnerabilities, and sit only 12th.

Evidence for YES

  • Newcastle are at home at St. James' Park, where home advantage in the Premier League is significant.
  • Match previews broadly favor Newcastle and predict a win (e.g. EPLIndex 2-0; fan poll ~52% Newcastle win).
  • Hull City are newly promoted and also missing several players including their first-choice goalkeeper.
  • Historical head-to-head shows Newcastle winning past Premier League meetings comfortably (e.g. 3-0, 0-3 in 2014-15).

Evidence for NO

  • Hull City are unbeaten and sit in the top 4 on 8 points, above 12th-placed Newcastle, with a strong early defensive record.
  • Newcastle have a heavy injury list (8 absentees including Joelinton, Dan Burn, Osula, Elanga).
  • Newcastle come in off a 4-1 defeat at Leeds that exposed defensive/structural weaknesses in a youthful squad.
  • A draw resolves NO, and roughly a quarter of these clubs' historical meetings were draws (5 of 12).
⚠ Sofascore's team page referenced a 4-1 Leeds result while FotMob lists Newcastle 12th with 5 points from 4 (1W 2D 1L); different trackers count the sample slightly differently but agree Newcastle are mid-table and lost heavily to Leeds.
⚠ Head-to-head totals differ: FotMob reports Newcastle 3W / Hull 1W / 3D, while AiScore reports 12 games with Newcastle 3W / Hull 4W / 5D.
⚠ Hull City's league position is reported as 3rd (7 pts after MD3) by LatestLy and top-4 (8 pts after MD4) by NewsX, reflecting different matchday snapshots rather than a true conflict.

KNOWN GAPS

SOURCES

3Judge JEV - [email protected]

The frozen evidence became one Noul question - what is the probability this market resolves YES? - answered with a single calibrated number:

0.500 ± 0.060 - question type noul

the crowd priced YES at 0.60/0.61 at that moment - Jev call: 2770 tokens in, 23 out - judged 22:15:19 ET

4Decide deterministic edge & risk engine

P(NO) 0.500 − price 0.400 − fee 0.012 − uncertainty 0.030 = +0.058 net edge ≥ 0.01 threshold → BET

BET NO - 11 contracts @ 0.40 ($4.71 fixed stake)

5Outcome settlement

pending - settles Sep 19, 10:00 ET - position open: NO 11x @ 0.40

Exact resolution rules (verbatim from the venue)

In the upcoming game, scheduled for September 19, 2026
If Newcastle United FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No".
This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.

The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
raw evidence snapshot (JSON, hash-verified)
{
  "schema_version": "1.1",
  "market": {
    "venue": "polymarket",
    "ticker": "epl-new-hul-2026-09-19-new",
    "event_ticker": "epl-new-hul-2026-09-19",
    "series_ticker": "premier-league-2025",
    "category": "event",
    "question": "Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-09-19?",
    "yes_subtitle": "Yes"
  },
  "resolution": {
    "criteria_primary": "In the upcoming game, scheduled for September 19, 2026\nIf Newcastle United FC wins, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\nIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.\nIf the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve \"No\".\nThis market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to \"Draw\" where applicable.",
    "criteria_secondary": "The market resolves YES only if Newcastle United beat Hull City in their Premier League fixture scheduled for 19 September 2026 (14:00 UTC / 3pm local kick-off at St. James' Park), based on the result of the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time as recognized by the Premier League (with Flashscore/Sofascore/consensus as fallbacks). A draw or a Newcastle loss resolves NO. If postponed, the market stays open until the game is completed; if canceled with no make-up, it resolves NO. Extra time/penalties are irrelevant (league match). Post-resolution score revisions are ignored.",
    "source": "https://www.premierleague.com/",
    "settle_time": "2026-09-19T14:00:00+00:00",
    "strike_type": null,
    "floor_strike": null,
    "cap_strike": null,
    "settlement_mechanics": "per venue resolution criteria"
  },
  "research": {
    "researcher": "llm-event",
    "researcher_version": "0.2.0",
    "mode": "blind",
    "created_at": "2026-09-19T02:15:19.075173+00:00"
  },
  "observations": [
    {
      "key": "base_rate_1",
      "value": 0.25,
      "unit": null,
      "kind": "historical_stat",
      "source_id": "web:1",
      "as_of": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T02:15:19.074762+00:00"
    },
    {
      "key": "base_rate_2",
      "value": 0.4,
      "unit": null,
      "kind": "historical_stat",
      "source_id": "web:1",
      "as_of": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T02:15:19.074762+00:00"
    },
    {
      "key": "forecast_1_BeTeam fan prediction poll (Newcastle wi",
      "value": 0.519,
      "unit": null,
      "kind": "forecast",
      "source_id": "web:2",
      "as_of": "2026-09-19",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T02:15:19.074762+00:00"
    },
    {
      "key": "Fixture",
      "value": "Newcastle United v Hull City, Premier League, St. James' Park (Newcastle home)",
      "unit": null,
      "kind": "fact",
      "source_id": "web:3",
      "as_of": "2026-09-19",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T02:15:19.074762+00:00"
    },
    {
      "key": "Kickoff",
      "value": "2026-09-19 14:00 UTC (3pm local)",
      "unit": null,
      "kind": "fact",
      "source_id": "web:4",
      "as_of": "2026-09-19",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T02:15:19.074762+00:00"
    },
    {
      "key": "Newcastle league position (after MD4)",
      "value": "12th, 5 points from 4 matches (1W 2D 1L)",
      "unit": null,
      "kind": "historical_stat",
      "source_id": "web:5",
      "as_of": "2026-09-15",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T02:15:19.074762+00:00"
    },
    {
      "key": "Newcastle recent form",
      "value": "Unbeaten start ended with 4-1 defeat away at Leeds United (Mon 14 Sep); prior 2-0 win at Tottenham, 2-2 draw vs Bournemouth, EFL Cup 3-2 win vs West Brom",
      "unit": null,
      "kind": "historical_stat",
      "source_id": "web:6",
      "as_of": "2026-09-18",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T02:15:19.074762+00:00"
    },
    {
      "key": "Hull City league position (after MD4)",
      "value": "Top 4, 8 points from 4 matches, unbeaten (2W 2D), strong defensive record",
      "unit": null,
      "kind": "historical_stat",
      "source_id": "web:7",
      "as_of": "2026-09-14",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T02:15:19.074762+00:00"
    },
    {
      "key": "Hull City status",
      "value": "Newly promoted from Championship via 2025-26 EFL play-offs",
      "unit": null,
      "kind": "fact",
      "source_id": "web:8",
      "as_of": "2026-09-19",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T02:15:19.074762+00:00"
    },
    {
      "key": "Newcastle injuries/absences",
      "value": "Dan Burn (ankle), Joelinton (thigh), William Osula (foot), Nico Gonzalez (concussion), Jacob Ramsey (thigh), Anthony Elanga, Amar Dedic (hamstring), Ewen Jaouen (ankle) all out",
      "unit": null,
      "kind": "fact",
      "source_id": "web:9",
      "as_of": "2026-09-18",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T02:15:19.074762+00:00"
    },
    {
      "key": "Hull City injuries/absences",
      "value": "Jack Butland, Darko Gyabi, Eliot Matazo, Charlie Hughes, Ilyas Ansah, Hidemasa Morita, Nobel Mendy, Paddy McNair listed injured",
      "unit": null,
      "kind": "fact",
      "source_id": "web:10",
      "as_of": "2026-09-18",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T02:15:19.074762+00:00"
    },
    {
      "key": "Managers",
      "value": "Newcastle: Matthias Jaissle; Hull City: Sergej Jakirovic",
      "unit": null,
      "kind": "fact",
      "source_id": "web:11",
      "as_of": "2026-09-18",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T02:15:19.074762+00:00"
    },
    {
      "key": "Head-to-head record",
      "value": "FotMob: Newcastle 3 wins, Hull 1 win, 3 draws; last meeting Nov 2016",
      "unit": null,
      "kind": "historical_stat",
      "source_id": "web:12",
      "as_of": "2026-09-19",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T02:15:19.074762+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "derived": {
    "tau_s": 42280.924858,
    "research_time": "2026-09-19T02:15:19.074762+00:00",
    "model_meta": {
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      "model": "claude-opus-4-8",
      "prompt_version": "2",
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      "input_tokens": 144851,
      "output_tokens": 13159
    }
  },
  "signals": [
    {
      "direction": "yes",
      "strength": "moderate",
      "summary": "Newcastle play at home at St. James' Park; multiple match previews predict a Newcastle win (e.g. 2-0), viewing the game as a chance to bounce back against a newly-promoted side.",
      "source_id": "web:13"
    },
    {
      "direction": "yes",
      "strength": "weak",
      "summary": "Historical H2H favors Newcastle in wins over draws/Hull wins in recent Premier League meetings (0-3 and 3-1 type results in 2014-15).",
      "source_id": "web:14"
    },
    {
      "direction": "yes",
      "strength": "moderate",
      "summary": "Hull City themselves are missing several players (goalkeeper Jack Butland plus 7 others listed injured) for the trip to Tyneside.",
      "source_id": "web:10"
    },
    {
      "direction": "no",
      "strength": "moderate",
      "summary": "Hull City are the surprise package: unbeaten, sitting in the top 4 on 8 points with a strong defensive record, ranked above Newcastle in the table.",
      "source_id": "web:7"
    },
    {
      "direction": "no",
      "strength": "moderate",
      "summary": "Newcastle have a long injury list (8 players out incl. Joelinton, Burn, Osula, Elanga), forcing the manager to reshuffle a youthful squad.",
      "source_id": "web:9"
    },
    {
      "direction": "no",
      "strength": "weak",
      "summary": "Newcastle enter off a damaging 4-1 defeat at Leeds that exposed structural vulnerabilities, and sit only 12th.",
      "source_id": "web:6"
    }
  ],
  "market_information": null,
  "evidence_for_yes": [
    "Newcastle are at home at St. James' Park, where home advantage in the Premier League is significant.",
    "Match previews broadly favor Newcastle and predict a win (e.g. EPLIndex 2-0; fan poll ~52% Newcastle win).",
    "Hull City are newly promoted and also missing several players including their first-choice goalkeeper.",
    "Historical head-to-head shows Newcastle winning past Premier League meetings comfortably (e.g. 3-0, 0-3 in 2014-15)."
  ],
  "evidence_for_no": [
    "Hull City are unbeaten and sit in the top 4 on 8 points, above 12th-placed Newcastle, with a strong early defensive record.",
    "Newcastle have a heavy injury list (8 absentees including Joelinton, Dan Burn, Osula, Elanga).",
    "Newcastle come in off a 4-1 defeat at Leeds that exposed defensive/structural weaknesses in a youthful squad.",
    "A draw resolves NO, and roughly a quarter of these clubs' historical meetings were draws (5 of 12)."
  ],
  "contradictions": [
    "Sofascore's team page referenced a 4-1 Leeds result while FotMob lists Newcastle 12th with 5 points from 4 (1W 2D 1L); different trackers count the sample slightly differently but agree Newcastle are mid-table and lost heavily to Leeds.",
    "Head-to-head totals differ: FotMob reports Newcastle 3W / Hull 1W / 3D, while AiScore reports 12 games with Newcastle 3W / Hull 4W / 5D.",
    "Hull City's league position is reported as 3rd (7 pts after MD3) by LatestLy and top-4 (8 pts after MD4) by NewsX, reflecting different matchday snapshots rather than a true conflict."
  ],
  "missing_information": [
    "De-vigged bookmaker/market implied win probability (excluded by blind mode).",
    "Confirmed starting XIs (only predicted lineups available pre-match).",
    "Team-specific xG/xGA and Newcastle's precise home win rate over the past 1-2 seasons.",
    "Weather or any late postponement risk for the fixture."
  ],
  "data_quality": {
    "overall": 0.8,
    "source_agreement": 0.85,
    "n_web_sources": 14,
    "market_price_contamination": "not_reported"
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "source_id": "web:1",
      "name": "https://www.aiscore.com/head-to-head/soccer-hull-city-vs-newcastle-united",
      "url": "https://www.aiscore.com/head-to-head/soccer-hull-city-vs-newcastle-united",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T02:15:19.074762+00:00",
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    },
    {
      "source_id": "web:2",
      "name": "https://beteamapp.com/predictions/premier-league/newcastle-united-vs-hull-city-2026-09-19",
      "url": "https://beteamapp.com/predictions/premier-league/newcastle-united-vs-hull-city-2026-09-19",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T02:15:19.074762+00:00",
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    {
      "source_id": "web:3",
      "name": "https://www.newcastleunited.com/en/matches/mens-team/newcastle-united-v-hull-city-english-premier-league-20260919",
      "url": "https://www.newcastleunited.com/en/matches/mens-team/newcastle-united-v-hull-city-english-premier-league-20260919",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T02:15:19.074762+00:00",
      "raw": {
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    {
      "source_id": "web:4",
      "name": "https://www.sofascore.com/football/team/newcastle-united/39",
      "url": "https://www.sofascore.com/football/team/newcastle-united/39",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T02:15:19.074762+00:00",
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    {
      "source_id": "web:5",
      "name": "https://www.fotmob.com/teams/10261/overview/newcastle-united",
      "url": "https://www.fotmob.com/teams/10261/overview/newcastle-united",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T02:15:19.074762+00:00",
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    {
      "source_id": "web:6",
      "name": "https://thehardtackle.com/round-up/2026/09/18/newcastle-united-vs-hull-city-preview-prediction-probable-lineups-tactics-team-news-stats/",
      "url": "https://thehardtackle.com/round-up/2026/09/18/newcastle-united-vs-hull-city-preview-prediction-probable-lineups-tactics-team-news-stats/",
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    {
      "source_id": "web:7",
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    },
    {
      "source_id": "web:8",
      "name": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_EFL_play-offs",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_EFL_play-offs",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T02:15:19.074762+00:00",
      "raw": {
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    {
      "source_id": "web:9",
      "name": "https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/newcastle-united/injury-news/team-news/newcastle-vs-hull-injury-suspension-list-predicted-xis_605291.html",
      "url": "https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/newcastle-united/injury-news/team-news/newcastle-vs-hull-injury-suspension-list-predicted-xis_605291.html",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T02:15:19.074762+00:00",
      "raw": {
        "note": "content retrieved via LLM web research; no raw payload archived",
        "provider": "anthropic",
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